MANIFOLD
Jayson Tatum Achilles Return in 2025-26
2
Ṁ275Ṁ467
Jun 30
90%
Returns and outperforms Sam Hauser
86%
Plays >0:00 in Playoffs
85%
Returns and plays more than 24 MPG
83%
Returns and outperforms Nikola Vucecic
80%
Returns and outperforms Neemias Queta
69%
Returns and outperforms Payton Pritchard
46%
Returns and outperforms Derrick White
44%
Returns and outperforms Jaylen Brown
33%
Returns as a Top 10 NBA Player
20%
Returns then ruled out for season
Resolved
YES
Plays >0:00 in Regular Season

The “outperforms” markets are up to my discretion

but aim to be objective

I’ll focus on the games after Tatum returns for an apples to apples comparison but if the sample size is too low

Jaylen Brown ≈ Top 15

Derrick White ≈ Top 30

Payton Pritchard ≈ Top 50

Neemias Queta ≈ Top 75

Nikola Vucevic ≈ Top 100

the purpose of those 5 markets it’s to gauge whether if/when Tatum returns if he’ll be the Celtics

1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th best player

Market context
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