AI Capabilities

YouTube
Figure Status Update - OpenAI Speech-to-Speech Reasoning
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
Ṁ1.2k
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?
NO
Ṁ2.5k
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
1% chance
Ṁ4.4k
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
45% chance
Ṁ2.4k
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
81% chance
Ṁ1.7k
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
88% chance
Ṁ1.2k
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
YES
Ṁ13k
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
53% chance
Ṁ1.8k
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
YES
Ṁ100k
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
YES
Ṁ2k
Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?
NO
Ṁ1.2k
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
NO
Ṁ2.4k
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
92% chance
Ṁ1k
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
NO
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy