Do we expect other waves this year? The current winter wave is clearly tapering off, more or less on schedule like last year’s. It hasn’t burned through most of unvaccinated population, though, unless reported cases are but a small fraction of actual cases. If 2026 is like 2025 only bigger, then I expect we’ll fall far short of doubling the numbers—and I’m not even sure we’ll have more cases than last year. But if there’s another wave in the making or the next winter wave starts early enough, then this could be very bad indeed.

For 2025, the number was 2,267 confirmed cases. The market resolves YES if at least 4534 cases are reported in 2026 (conditional on 2025 data not being revised).