This market tracks PGM 6E production at the facility level.
Facility: Impala Platinum operations in South Africa
Basket type: PGM 6E (contains platinum, palladium, rhodium, and other PGMs)
Coverage period: Trailing 12 months (TTM) ending 2026-12-31
Settlement delay: 2 months (observation date = March 1, 2027)
Baseline (2026): 271,000 ozt
Data source: Official company production disclosures and quarterly reports
Resolution Criteria
Resolve YES iff: Latest Delayed (2m) Trailing (12m) result for implats_two_rivers_pgm_6e_ttm_ozt as of March 1, 2027 is ≥ 271,000 ozt.
If PGM 6E production ≥ 271,000 ozt, resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
1,000Market pricing near 55% looks low given that recent run-rate production at Two Rivers is already above the bar and Implats is guiding for continued momentum there; the key thing to watch is whether further PGM price weakness pushes Implats/ARM to scale back higher-cost Merensky volumes before mid-2026.
Implats guidance and the 2023–2026 investment/production trajectory make “maintain at/above 271 koz” more likely than not at Two Rivers; unless there is an unanticipated operational or price-driven cut specific to this asset, the threshold looks conservative relative to recent and planned capacity.