This market resolves YES if the uranium spot price averaged over the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds $110 per pound U3O8 by 2030-03-31.
Measurement methodology:
Calculate average uranium spot price during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date
For 2030-03-31 settlement: measure average price from 2029-10-02 to 2030-12-31
Use daily spot price data from authoritative uranium market sources
"Spot price" means uranium oxide (U3O8) spot price, not long-term contract prices
YES if:
Verified average spot price in the measurement window is ≥$110/lb
Multiple sources confirm pricing through the period
NO if:
Average spot price remains below $110/lb
Only peak/spot prices (not average) would exceed threshold
Resolution sources (priority order):
UxC (The Ux Consulting Company) weekly spot price indicators
TradeTech Nuclear Fuel Weekly Spot Price Indicator
Numerco nuclear fuel price reports
Cameco uranium market data disclosures
Major commodity data providers (S&P Global, Bloomberg)
1,000Fundamentals still favor structurally high uranium, but at ~61% the market is roughly in line with a sober 55–65% fair value band, so staying in after a poor entry just ties up capital in a fairly priced, long‑dated macro bet. Re‑enter on future dislocations if odds dump back into the 40s without a real change in supply-demand.
Uranium has effectively “broken out” into a new price regime driven by underinvestment and a nuclear build‑out; from here the key question is whether prices can stay below $110 on a 15‑month average basis for four more years, which looks unlikely given how close current spot already is and how slowly new supply responds.