MANIFOLD
What will the highest 2026 USAMO cutoff be?
55
Ṁ275Ṁ8.6k
Mar 16
395 points
expected
0.1%
Below 330
0.1%
330 - 344.5
0.1%
345 - 359.5
3%
360 - 374.5
20%
375 - 389.5
66%
390 - 404.5
11%
405 - 419.5
0.3%
420 - 434.5
0.1%
435 - 449.5
0.1%
450

Every year, there are four cutoffs for the USAMO, depending on whether the contestant took the AMC 12A or 12B, and whether the contestant took the AIME I or II. This market asks for the maximum among these four cutoffs.

Note that this year, the AMC index is calculated as AMC + 20 AIME (instead of AMC + 10 AIME), so it maxes out at 450 (instead of 300). Also there may be many cheaters on AIME, similar to what happened with AMC.

Update: if, by the time of USAMO, the MAA does not end up releasing anything concerning how decisions were made, then this market resolves N/A.

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bro people with 410s arent making usamo

sold Ṁ46 NO

@ZongshuWu potentially resolve N/A?

@RaymondZhu buh buh buh skibidi xooks rbo 1434!!!

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